It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Casey's General Stores (CASY Quick QuoteCASY - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 7.9% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Casey's due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

CASY Q4 Earnings Beat on Inside Sales & Fuel Margin Strength

Casey's reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with both the top and bottom lines beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate and increased year over year.

The company posted quarterly earnings of $4.37 per share, beating the consensus mark of $3.36 by 30.1%. Earnings rose 66.2% from $2.63 in the prior-year quarter. Revenues of $4.57 billion surpassed the consensus estimate of $4.40 billion by 4% and advanced 14.5% year over year. Inside same-store sales rose year over year, while fuel margins expanded sharply.

CASY’s Quarterly Performance: Key Details

Casey’s delivered net income of $162.7 million in the fourth quarter, up 65.5% from $98.3 million in the year-ago period. EBITDA increased 33.2% year over year to $350.3 million, driven by higher inside and fuel gross profit.

The company benefited from strength inside the store and at the pump. Total inside sales rose 7.4% from the prior year to $1.52 billion, while total inside gross profit increased 10.5% to $643.4 million.

Casey’s Inside Sales Show Broad Momentum

Inside same-store sales increased 5.5% compared with 1.7% growth in the prior-year quarter. On a two-year stack basis, inside same-store sales increased 7.4%.

The upside was led by strong demand for whole pizzas, appetizers and sides in the prepared food and dispensed beverage category. Non-alcoholic beverages supported growth in grocery and general merchandise.

CASY’s Margin Profile Strengthens

Inside margin expanded to 42.4% from 41.2% in the year-ago quarter. Cost of goods management, improved waste and mix shift were the primary drivers of the 120-basis-point margin expansion.

Prepared food and dispensed beverage margin improved to 59.5% from 57.8%. Grocery and general merchandise margin increased to 35.7% from 34.8%, aided by favorable category mix and cost discipline.

Casey’s Segmental Sales Trends

Prepared food and dispensed beverage sales increased 9.2% year over year to $427.6 million. Same-store sales for the category advanced 6.6%, supported by whole pizzas, appetizers and sides.

Grocery and general merchandise sales rose 6.7% to $1.09 billion. Same-store sales in the category increased 5.1%, with notable strength in non-alcoholic beverages, particularly energy drinks.

CASY’s Fuel Business Delivers Strong Gains

Fuel gallons sold increased 3.6% year over year to 848.3 million, driven by a large store base and same-store gallon growth. Same-store fuel gallons were up 1.5% compared with 0.1% growth in the prior-year quarter.

Fuel gross profit jumped 29.1% to $397.4 million. Fuel margin improved to 46.9 cents per gallon from 37.6 cents a year earlier. Casey’s also generated $15.2 million in renewable fuel credits in the quarter, up $10.8 million from the prior-year period.

Casey’s Expense Trends and Cash Position

Total operating expenses rose 10.1% year over year to $730 million. Operating 40 more stores accounted for roughly 2% of the increase, while same-store employee expense contributed about 1.5%, mainly due to higher labor rates.

The company ended the quarter with $1.4 billion in available liquidity, including $523 million in cash and cash equivalents and $900 million in available borrowing capacity. Casey’s repurchased about $63 million of shares during the quarter and its board expanded the repurchase authorization to $1 billion.

CASY’s Fiscal 2026 Finish & 2027 View

For fiscal 2026, Casey’s reported diluted earnings of $19.16 per share, up 30.9% year over year. Net income increased 30.7% to $714.4 million, while EBITDA rose 23.6% to nearly $1.5 billion.

For fiscal 2027, management expects inside same-store sales to increase 2-5%, with an inside margin above 42%. Same-store fuel gallons sold are expected to range between a 1% decline and a 1% increase. Total operating expenses are projected to rise 5-7%, while EBITDA is expected to grow 8-10%.

Casey’s Store Growth & Shareholder Returns

Casey’s operated 2,944 stores as of Apr. 30, 2026. During fiscal 2026, the company added 40 new stores through construction, acquired 40 stores and opened one prior acquisition, while closing 41 stores.

The company expects to open at least 120 stores in fiscal 2027 through a mix of mergers and acquisitions and new store construction. Casey’s also raised its quarterly dividend by 14% to 65 cents per share, marking the 27th consecutive annual dividend increase.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

At this time, Casey's has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock has a score of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Casey's has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.